This software is a research tool. It is not investment advice.
Read this before you use any number this tool produces to decide what to do with money.
Nothing produced by this software is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset. The authors are not investment advisers, brokers, or analysts, and are not registered with any financial regulator. No output of this tool takes your circumstances, risk tolerance, tax position or jurisdiction into account, because it knows nothing about them.
If you want advice, talk to a licensed adviser in your country.
It measures whether historical patterns in the Bitcoin price are distinguishable from random noise. That is a different question from “what will happen next”, and the tool makes no attempt to answer the second one.
Its own headline finding, on data from 2011 to 2026, is negative: the apparent effect of Bitcoin halvings does not survive correction for multiple testing, does not replicate out of sample, and cannot be distinguished from what the NASDAQ did over the same windows. A tool whose main result is “we found no evidence” is not a tool for picking trades.
The backtesting engine deliberately includes transaction costs, slippage and execution lag, because omitting them makes every strategy look better than it is. Even so, a backtest remains a description of the past under simplifying assumptions. It does not model:
The slippage figure in the configuration is an assumption, not a measurement. Change it and the ranking of strategies changes.
Prices come from public exchange APIs and may contain gaps, outliers or
divergences between venues; the tool reports these rather than hiding them,
but reporting is not fixing. Macroeconomic series get revised after
publication. The list of historical events in data/raw/events.csv is
maintained by hand, was assembled after the fact, and is therefore subject to
selection bias — a point the tool states in its own output.
Nobody warrants that any of this data is accurate, complete or current.
Past performance does not indicate future results. Bitcoin has repeatedly lost more than 70% of its value from a peak. You can lose everything you put into it.
This software is provided “as is”, without warranty of any kind. See LICENSE
for the full terms. The authors are not liable for any loss arising from use of
this software or reliance on its output.
You are responsible for complying with the laws and regulations that apply to
you, including those governing financial instruments, market data licensing and
taxation. You are also responsible for respecting the terms of service of the
data providers this tool queries — see DATA_SOURCES.md.